Learn prediction markets from the ground up
Before your first prediction, understand the core ideas in a few minutes: what a price means, why it moves, and how you make money from it.
What is a prediction market?
Each market is a simple question about a real-world event: “Will X happen?” — the outcome of a match, an economic event, or a political decision.
Instead of betting at fixed odds, you trade on the probability of that event. The price of each option is the collective estimate of everyone trading.
- One question, two answers. Each market settles to “Yes” or “No” — you predict which is right.
- Price = crowd wisdom. The more people trade, the more accurately the price reflects the real probability.
The price is the probability
Each option’s price moves between 1¢ and 99¢ and directly reflects its implied probability. 68¢ means the market gives the event a 68% chance.
This is where profit comes from: if your read is better than the crowd’s and you think the true probability is above 68%, buying “Yes” is worth it.
- Cheap ≠ bad. A low price just means the event is less likely — not that it’s a “bad trade.”
Yes & No: two sides of one dollar
The “Yes” and “No” prices always add up to $1 (that is, 100¢). If “Yes” is 68¢, “No” is exactly 32¢.
So you can trade either side. If you think the market has made an event too likely, buy “No” — bet on it not happening.
- Buy “Yes”: you profit if the event happens.
- Buy “No”: you profit if the event does not happen.
What is a share worth?
Each share has one simple rule: at settlement, it pays exactly $1 if your side is right and $0 if it’s wrong.
The price you pay (say 68¢) is your cost; the most a share can ever pay is $1. The gap between the two is your potential profit.
- Example: $100 ÷ 68¢ = 147 shares. If correct: $147 (+$47 profit).
Calculate it yourself
Change the amount and price to see how many shares you get and what each outcome is worth.
Why do prices move?
The price isn’t fixed — it shifts every moment as new information arrives and buying or selling pressure changes. Fresh news, a goal in a match, an economic figure: each changes the probability, and the price reacts instantly.
When the price rises after you buy, your position is worth more; that price movement is exactly what creates the chance for profit (or loss).
- New info = new price. The closer to the event, the more the price usually converges on the real outcome.
- Noise is normal. Not every short-term wobble is a reason to sell — look at your core thesis.
Two ways to make money
After opening a position you have two paths. Neither is “more correct” — it depends on your situation and analysis.
Hold to settlement
You wait for the result. If you predicted correctly, each share becomes a full $1 — the maximum payout. Risk: if you’re wrong, the share becomes $0.
Sell early
You sell before the result. If the price has moved in your favor, you lock the profit in right there. You can sell part of your shares and keep the rest.
Early-sell simulator
Imagine you bought 147 “Yes” shares at an average of 68¢. Change the current price and see how much profit or loss you’d take if you sold right now.
Risk & reading the odds
Your entry price sets both your probability and your return at once. A cheaper share has a bigger percentage return, but a lower chance of winning.
| Buy price | Implied probability | Return if right | Nature |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90¢ | 90% | +11% | likely, small return |
| 68¢ | 68% | +47% | balanced |
| 30¢ | 30% | +233% | unlikely, big return |
| 10¢ | 10% | +900% | longshot |
- Golden rule: only put in what you’re ready to lose. On a wrong prediction, the share becomes worthless.
How do markets resolve?
When the event ends, the result is read and confirmed from a verified data source. The market then settles automatically: each winning share gets $1 and the losing side gets $0.
If a result is disputed or delayed, the market is tagged clearly and nothing pays out until the source gives a final confirmation.
- Automatic and transparent. No action needed from you; the profit is added to your free balance.
Quick glossary
Terms you’ll see across the platform.
- Market
- A yes/no question about an event that you trade on.
- Option
- One of the possible answers — “Yes” or “No.”
- Share
- The unit you trade; pays $1 or $0 at settlement.
- Position
- The shares you hold in a market.
- Price / probability
- An option’s price (¢) = its implied chance of happening.
- Spread
- The small gap between the buy and sell price.
- Volume
- How much a market trades; more = a sharper price.
- Market / Limit order
- Execute instantly at the current price, or set your own entry price.
- Settlement
- Announcing the result and paying winners automatically.
- Cash out
- Selling your position before settlement to free up cash.
- P&L
- The live difference between your position’s value and its cost.
- Free balance
- Money not in a position — ready to trade or withdraw.
A few strategy tips
To start smarter — not hard rules, just good habits.
Manage your position size
Spread your funds across several markets and never put more than you can handle into one trade.
Analyze, don’t feel
Decide based on information; short-term swings usually aren’t an exit signal.
Partial sell = smart exit
Lock in part of the profit and keep the rest in play to balance risk and reward.
Follow the news
Fresh information moves the price; seeing news earlier means a better opportunity.